So the IPL starts tonight, and I was thinking of writing a conventional preview of the tournament and of the eight squads, but I realise that most of the players in each squad are virtual unknowns, and in the greater scheme of things, the fate of their team might rest on their hands more than on the stars'. (Plus, Sportsfreak beat me to it.)
Instead, I thought I'd take a punt and make a few random predictions for things we might see during the next 6 weeks. Some of these are informed, some are a little baseless... but I surely can't do any worse than the last time I tried my hand at prognostication.
GENERAL TOURNAMENT PREDICTIONS
Most intriguing matchup in the first week…
Delhi Daredevils v. Deccan Chargers (Tuesday) -- Glenn McGrath opening the bowling against Adam Gilchrist? I've been dreaming of seeing that matchup for almost a decade. Thank you, IPL.
Amount of time before the first person audibly
complains about the only-4-foreigners-per-lineup rule…
7.3 overs into the first match, when Twenty20 guru Misbah-ul-Haq watches from
the sidelines as Jacques Kallis is wasting balls in the middle for Bangalore
(duly delivered by Ajit Agarkar, who’s opening the bowling for Kolkata because
Umar Gul couldn’t fit into the team.)
Most interesting subplot…
The
tyrannical media rules in place during the tournament. If you thought the
organisers of the World Cup in the Caribbean were tone-deaf and backward in their
treatment of sport in the new century, just wait for the IPL. We’re already
seeing bitter coverage rights disputes, where Cricinfo, probably the largest
purveyor of news, scores and content for any sport, is getting treated
like some two-bit Blogspot site run out of someone’s basement with a dial-up
modem.
I’m sure they’ll eventually come up with a
last-minute ad hoc solution to the issue and make things work, but it’s
undeniable that this scary man-child of a tournament is going to have some
teething problems. Maybe for a number of years. Certainly for the first one.
Odds of an idiotic YouTube ban on IPL clips
(which I will be bitching about incessantly for weeks)… 5
in 4.
TEAM
PREDICTIONS
The team with worse internal chemistry than the
New York Knicks…
Unquestionably, the Billy Madison Knight Riders!
Talk about 11 players, 11 cabs. Those on-field celebrations after a wicket are
going to be more awkward that the moment in a porno shoot when anal leakage
first occurs. I can’t say enough about how poorly designed this team seems. The
talent is there, no doubt, and there’s always the chance that Ricky Ponting
goes on one of his bloodless scoring sprees for a month, so they can never
really be dismissed. (Something tells me that the team’s fortunes will hinge
heavily on Chris Gayle’s form, with both bat and ball.)
The team that will be ruined by simple Economics...
The Chennai Super Kings. They broke the bank on Dhoni and
then spent big on a few other imports, leaving them without much of a bowling lineup.
(They’ve got Ntini and Murali, but it’s unlikely they can use more than one
foreign spot on the bowling.) The interesting thing will be to see what happens
when the Australian contingent has to leave for the Caribbean, and they’re
stuck on the home stretch without Hayden and Hussey.
Sleeper with a dirty secret…
The Delhi Devils. This team will prosper when it
makes a pick between McGrath and Asif for the foreign metronome position,
thereby providing them another foreign spot in the middle-order (and,
crucially, the field… at the moment they have AB de Villiers, Tillakaratne
Dilshan, and Shoaib Malik vying for the one spot. As every single Twenty20
match ever played in history has proven, having a good part-time spinner and
jack-of-all-trades is about fifty times more useful than having another
seamer).
At the same time, their Achilles’ heel might
turn out to be the one player who, on paper, should be their leader and
match-winner. Virender Sehwag’s aggressive batting intent and canny mid-overs
offspin should make him a killer Twenty20 player, but we’ve already seen
countless times how ass-backwards his natural talents present themselves, so it
wouldn’t shock me if he ends up with the least runs and most wickets in the
squad, or something.
But more importantly, is he set to captain the
team just because he’s their ‘icon’ player? That would be a disastrous idea.
(Especially with Dan Vettori right there on the same team.) Let’s hope management decisions like that are based on sober reasoning and not on corporate and financial considera... ahh, screw it, Sehwag's gonna be captain, isn't he? Good luck with that.
The team who may be undone by spending too much time at photo shoots...
The Punjab Kings. I know this is more the terrain of Dinnie at Six and Out, but aren't there way too many pretty boys in this squad? Brett Lee, Yuvraj, Sangakkara, Sarwan... it's a good thing Simon Katich is there to balance things out a little. If they can manage to wade through the rivers of free pussy on offer and not let the fame and money get to their heads, I'd say they should be one of the tournament favourites.
The team who, for unknown historical reasons,
seems destined to underwhelm…
The Deccan Chargers. There is no doubt -- they
should be the favourites. If not objectively, at least in the fans’ minds. They
have a team full of sloggers, biffers, and smiters. They can field, keep, and
bowl that annoying 5-an-over part-time spin that just makes batters’ faces turn
red and ultimately leads to wild heaves to cow corner that end up being spooned
straight back off the leading edge to a joyous bowler. Perfect in theory,
right?
Which means it will probably fall apart before
you know it. It’s just karma, really. (Remember that year when the Lakers picked up
Karl Malone and Gary Payton to play with Kobe and Shaq? What did they get for
it? A whole lotta nothing. They got beaten in the Finals by ‘Sheed’s Pistons,
and by the end of following season, Malone had retired, Shaq and Payton had
escaped to Miami, and all that was left was a sulking Kobe Bryant playing
1-against-5 for the next three years.)
First of all, I thought Herschelle Gibbs was a
fugitive from the Indian law. Did he sort out his match-fixing rap in the end?
Or will he be nabbed, like Hyman Roth in The Godfather II, as he sets
foot on the airport terminal in Hyderabad? Having him and his ‘issues’ around
surely can’t help team morale and chemistry, right?
Second, I don’t trust their bowling. Sure, they
have probably the most effective Twenty20 bowler in the world in Shahid Afridi
– while Andrew Symonds is too much of an alpha- to not come in handy for a
couple of overs of physical intimidation -- but the rest of the bowling looks a
little iffy to me. RP Singh has done well against Australia, but beyond that, I
couldn’t tell you why he’s supposed to be good. Vaas is Vaas, but by this point
he’s already bowling slower than Afridi, and I don’t know if I trust him at the
death as much as I used to. (Remember, Chanderpaul’s last-ball six was off a
Vaas full-toss.)
I’m tempted to say that they could also have a
liability in VVS Laxman, who can’t field for shit and hasn’t stolen a single
since he was about 21, but given that they could never have amassed such a
strong team without his utterly unprecedented act of pure selflessness --
turning down the ‘icon’ status and, by extension, accepting a half-a-million
dollar pay cut in order to build a better team -- he deserves nothing but
gratitude and commendation.
(Not to go all ESPN Classic on you, but THAT’S
what champions do… they come through for their teams. And don’t let anyone
doubt VVS’s greatness anymore.)
PLAYER
PREDICTIONS
Potential
steals of the draft…
1. Umar Gul ($150K) – Best bowler of the 2007 Twenty20 World Cup. ‘Nuff said.
2. Scott Styris ($150K) – 2nd best player of the 2007 ODI World Cup. ‘Nuff
said.
3.
Dinesh Karthik ($550K) – Picking up an international-level wicketkeeper,
batsman, and Indian in one package -- all at a decent price -- might prove
to be a very savvy move by the D'devils.
4. Glenn McGrath ($350K) – Don’t ever
underestimate this freak. You’ve been warned.
Potential busts of the draft...
1.
M.S. Dhoni ($1.5 million) – I know this pick was more financially-driven than
anything, cashing in on the massive merchandising brand that now comes along
with the Dhoni name, and in that sense, it probably is already a success. But as
the cornerstone of a successful cricket squad, consider me skeptical. They blew
almost a third of their budget on Dhoni, and there are already rumours that he
won’t even don the gloves. That means he’s going to have to make up a lot of slack with his batting and captaincy.
2.
Ishant Sharma ($950K) – What have we learnt about less-than-express pace
bowlers in Twenty20? What have we learnt about lanky, frail-looking Indian
seamers who get overworked and overhyped too early in their careers?
3.
Jacques Kallis ($900K) – Had anyone in the Bangalore brainstrust even seen
Kallis play before forking out all that money for him? They must be expecting
him to get a whole bunch of maidens, because that’s the only thing that will
make up for all the balls he’ll waste at the crease. Don’t be surprised if he ends up with the
highest average, though… it’s what he thinks he’s getting paid for.
Fantasy studs (that is, if cricket actually had
a decent roto or head-to-head fantasy setup)…
1. Daniel Vettori – He’ll bring you wickets, some runs, keep your bowling average and strike rates down, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he bags a maiden or two. A true ‘all-rounder’, in that he doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses, and wouldn’t hurt you in any categories.
2. Chris
Gayle – The only player who has hit a hundred in Twenty20 internationals, as
well as (somehow) the second most productive offspinner in world cricket in the
past half decade.
3. Shahid
Afridi – Everyone knows what he’s capable of doing with the bat when on song,
but it makes a lot more sense, psychologically, to think of him as a tight
bowler and team cheerleader who can occassionally hit a handful of sixes for
you. It’s a small psychological change of perspective, but it makes him a lot
less infuriating too watch, believe me.
4. Andrew
Symonds – Another true all-rounder, except he also gives you run-outs and a
celestial strike rate. It’s possible his bowling might get carted around,
however, now that he doesn’t have Clarke and Ponting patrolling the infield.
Besides, isn’t he only playing half a season, anyway?
Once-in-a-lifetime players who we’ll miss out
seeing just because of the stupid IPL/ICL dispute…
1. Inzamam-ul-Haq
2. Lance Klusener
3. Abdul Razzaq (who also doubles as the "Once-in-a-lifetime player who really, really needs to get better management.")
Recently retired or soon-to-retire players whose
legacy stock will rise after this IPL season…
1. Scott Styris
2. Stephen Fleming
3. Glenn McGrath
1. Rahul Dravid
2. Shane Warne
3. Justin Langer
Recently banned and soon-to-be-injured player
whose legacy stock will not be affected, since it’s been worthless for years
now…
Shoaib Akthar
MISCELLANEOUS PREDICTIONS
Number of times Napoleon Einstein’s name will be
involved in a joke/pun by a commentator… 78 (he probably
won’t get to bat much, so his time on camera will be diminished. If he’s used
as a pinch-hitter, expect that number to break triple figures easily.)
Number
of Napoleon Einstein jokes that will be told by Dean Jones… 23
Number of Napoleon Einstein jokes
told by Dean Jones that will actually be funny… 0
Time before the first speculation about
additional franchises is heard…
2 weeks, and about 18
games in, when Allen Stanford offers to buy the entire country of Bangladesh
and run a multi-million-dollar supersquad from there.
Probable names for new IPL franchises...
1. The Uber-Royals
2. The Imperials
3. The Subcontinentals
hey
nice post. some really funny things in there. BTW this is ankit, the new owner of www.sixandout.net
Dinnie left some time back... :(
Posted by: Ankit | April 19, 2008 at 07:45 PM