IPL

June 22, 2008

2008 Season Big Board (IPL Wrap-Up, p. III)

[Lefty J]

Firstly, let me introduce myself. You may have heard of me through some of D.S.'s posts, I'm LeftyJ, the resident stat man at Outside the Line. I'm also a huge fan of fantasy sports (I've dominated D.S. in our NBA fantasy leagues for two years running and the fucker still owes me money), and it's been obvious to me for some time that cricket is in DIRE need of a proper fantasy league. I can't believe it hasn't happened yet, but don't worry, I'm on the case.

As a kind of fake conclusion to this year's IPL fantasy season, I decided to do a final wrap up/Big Board. I've ranked the players in order of their total value in a ten category format (runs, strike rate, batting average, fours, sixes, wickets, bowling average, economy rate, catches and run outs). It wasn't easy to do, but I think you'll find it's quite accurate (feel free to post some comments on where you feel I went wrong), and in the end we found some surprising results.

RANK

PLAYER

TYPE

STOCK

1

SR Watson (RR)

Bat/Bwl/All

Contributed hugely in all 10 categories. The only player to do so. ‘Nuff said.

2

SE Marsh (PXI)

Bat

Top performer in runs (616) and average (68.44), second in fours (59) and sixes (26). An absolute beast.

3

ST Jayasuriya (MI)

Bat/All

Bigtime boundary hitter led the league in sixes (31), and broke even with his bowling.

4

Sohail Tanvir (RR)

Bwl/All

Most wickets (22), best average (12.09) and second lowest economy rate (6.46). Clearly the most effective bowler in the tournament.

5

YK Pathan (RR)

Bat/All

Came out of nowhere, and finished in the top three for strike rate and sixes, and managed 8 wickets with his handy offspin.

6

JA Morkel (CSK)

Bat/Bwl/All

A poor man's Shane Watson, contributed nicely in all categories except economy rate (8.31).

7

G Gambhir (DD)

Bat

Second leading run scorer and leading four hitter (68) just needs to embrace the six (he got a mere 8 of them) to become a complete fantasy batter.

8

SK Raina (CSK)

Bat

Leading catcher (10), with very solid batting numbers.

9

AC Gilchrist (DC)

Bat/WK

Wasn't as explosive as usual, but still a top-10 batter.

10

SK Warne (RR)

Bwl

Would love to see him bat higher up, but still scraped into the top ten with sublime bowling lines and six catches.

11

GC Smith (RR)

Bat

Thankfully didn't bowl, and his fours and average offset a poor strike rate.

12

RG Sharma (DC)

Bat

Faded late, but still contributed across the batting board, and bagged eight catches.

13

MF Maharoof (DD)

Bwl/All

Brilliant allround effort, would have been right up there if he had have been given more game time. Top-5 material for next year.

14

SC Ganguly (KKR)

Bat/All

Sourav kept his inner Kallis at bay and managed the league’s lowest economy rate, as well as a lot of runs and sixes.

15

MS Dhoni (CSK)

Bat/WK

Had a solid tournament with the bat, and got 6 catches.

16

DJ Bravo (MI)

Bwl/All

Multi-category player looked the part in limited time. Should break the top-10 next season.

17

SM Pollock (MI)

Bwl/All

Achieved a little in most categories, but excelled bigtime in economy rate (6.54).

18

PP Chawla (PXI)

Bwl

Struggled to keep the runs down, but was a genuine wicket-taker. Showed urgency with the bat, and held onto 6 catches.

19

IK Pathan (PXI)

Bwl/All

Reversed his previous form, and had a great tournament with the ball (15 wickets, econ rate 6.6), but not with the bat (strike rate 112, only 9 fours).

20

M Gony (CSK)

Bwl

Solid bowling is hard to come by in this format, and Gony bowled tight and and picked up wickets all tournament.

 


It turns out that the quality allrounder is the key to your fantasy team. Five of the top six players are allrounders. However, the most successful allrounders are the ones who could be considered specialists in both fields. It is always a risky pick drafting a bowling alrounder or (especially) a batting allrounder. Sehwag's omission from the top twenty is a perfect example of that. So the Morkel's and Watson's of the world should go very early in next years drafts. If Flintoff can ever get in a team, then watch out.

Five players from the top eleven played for the eventual winners, the Rajasthan Royals. The Bangalore Royal Challengers didn't get a single player in the top 20 (even Deccan Chargers managed two players), partly because they played so poorly, but partly because their players aren't fantasy-ready. And if this Big Board proves anything, it's that there is a correlation between fantasy performance and winning Twenty20 games.

One other thing to note is that batters (5 categories) are more useful than bowlers (3 categories). We wanted to even it up and include maidens (like we did for the World Cup 2007 fantasy system) , but there simply aren't enough of them in Twenty20 to make it a viable stat. Catches and run outs can prove the difference in the end, as SK Raina showed.

Here at Outside The Line, we plan on having a fully functional roto style fantasy league for next years IPL. We know we have some kinks to iron out in our system, but we assure you, it'll be much better than anything cricinfo, or anyone else has to offer. And I will personally provide the big boards, and fantasy relevant news and updates to help you draft, and win your leagues.

June 14, 2008

Four Belated, But No Less Relevant, Truths About The New World Order (IPL Wrap-up, p. II)

                             Hiroshima01rubble

This is like the morning after the day when the meteorite hits, or the tidal wave crashes, or the alien pods come out of the ground. We don't really know what to do. Smoke rises off the smoldering rubble and everyone has a dazed look on their face. We'll probably keep feeling like that for quite a while.

This is the world post-IPL. Desperate grabs for cash are attempted by interested parties (see: Twenty20 Champions League), mysterious benefactors drop down from helicopters with briefcases full of cash to inject boards with Pietersen bribe money timely stimulus packages, and shifty characters in positions of high power hold their weathered copies of The Prince just a little too tightly for their own good. Interesting times, indeed.

So what have we learned, then? After six weeks of diligent observation, and two weeks of reflection, what does Outside the Line have to say about the league that we expended so much time and energy trying to cover?

We tried to look past the obvious and focus at the big picture: what does the IPL represent for the sport of cricket, on a grand scale, and in the long term?

In the end, we found four larger connected truths that were made very clear in the last couple of months, and which might come to define the future of cricket:

It's Not The Format, It's The League 

This is a crucial factor, and it might be biggest source of misunderstanding in cricket minds at the moment. (In particular, in Daddy Warbucks' Allen Standford's mind.) What they seem to be doing is confusing Twenty20, the nascent cricket format, with the IPL, the nascent cricket league. It's not that people are going crazy for ultra-shortened versions of cricket – they’re going gaga at seeing their favourite players competing against each other, every week, in a veritable “league of stars”.

No one I know is really passionate about Twenty20 in-and-of-itself. They’re passionate about what Twenty20 could represent for the game of cricket as a whole. "Twenty20" is simply a set of rules. You know how Monopoly has a set of rules, usually printed on the back of the lid? Well, cricket also has its back-of-the-lid rules, only it has more than one set – it can be played under any number of equally valid arrangement of laws, regulations, and time limits.

You can have, for instance, long time frames mixed with few playing/fielding restrictions (i.e. Tests), or short time frames combined with more restrictions (i.e. Twenty20), or maybe something in between (i.e. 2-/3-day tour matches, lower grade games).

It should be obvious to most people that Twenty20 is incredibly limited as a form of cricket. Even a die-hard IPL fan should be able to admit that. It allows for little variation or nuance. It is brusque and brute at times – more forced, less fluid. No one denies this. What makes it special, however, and the reason why so many within cricket circles are so fired up about it, is that it is conducive to the creation of a professional league.

Justice_leagueThis is something cricket has, until now, always lacked – one large-scale, premier professional tournament that pits the best of the best in the sport against each other, on a regular basis, as part of squads of (relative) parity. (Examples abound throughout the world, but just to name a few: the NBA, MLB and NFL in the US; the UEFA Champions League in Europe; the Super 14s Rugby in Oceania and South Africa.)

That type of competition has just never been viable for cricket, given the structure of the game.

The ODI World Cup, to be sure, gathers a collection of the top talent in the world under the one umbrella, but, as was made crystal clear in last year’s edition in the West Indies, that does not guarantee a competitive, entertaining spectacle. It always goes on far too long, only a handful of teams are ever in contention, and Australia beats them all anyway.

(Add to that tired, formulaic nature of the 50-over game now that we're thirty years into the post-Packer era, the inept organisational chops of the ICC, the excessive time frames a typical ODIs is at least twice as long as the average game in any other major sport and you’ll soon see what a logistical nightmare every ODI World Cup is bound to become.)

As for Test cricket, forget about it… the list of viable international teams shrinks even further, and the chasm between the winners and the also-runs becomes much greater. In any one year, you’d be lucky if you can count the number of competitive Test series throughout the world on one hand. The only series that are capable of captivating the public imagination are the Ashes, the India v. Australia biseries, and India v Pakistan (although the latter might be losing some of its glean through sheer overexposure). Everything else is left to the tragics, the hyper-partisans, and (alas) the bloggers.

Twenty20 is ideal for a league format – its games are just short enough for the logistics to be right. You can have televised double- and triple-headers in one day, teams can play on consecutive nights, travel won't be a  huge factor, and you can schedule game for times when more than just stoners, housewives, and the unemployed are able to follow them.

The IPL may look gaudy, it may grate on the ear at times, and it may be run by a sociopath, but it's the only thing we have right now. If you can show me another way for Tatenda Taibu to ever lift a trophy, I'll be happy to hear it. Until then...


Not 'Show You The Money, Jerry'...'Show ME The Money!

Many people lampooned Kevin Pietersen’s complaints last month about being left out of the IPL and having to turn down millions of dollars of possible income. (To those of us who follow the NBA, it became reminiscent of the absurd cries of ex-Minnesota Timberwolf Latrell Sprewell, who left the league after vehemently rejecting a 3-year, $21 million dollar contract extension in 2005, claiming he was insulted and he “had a family to feed.”)

Jerrymaguiremoney_2 Yet, as much as we may hate to admit it, KP does have a point. If players are able to earn more money for playing a dozen or so Twenty20 games over six weeks than they could ever do by being centrally contracted to their national boards and having to play 9-10 months of the year, why shouldn’t they be able to do it? On what grounds are we stopping them from signing exactly?

By claiming that they’re hurting the “spirit of the game”? Or its “integrity”? I’d hate to break anyone’s bubble, but those are cricket writers’ platitudes. I bet most players don’t care three diddly squats, two flying fucks, and a partridge in a pear tree about the "spirit of cricket." What most players would care about is the very act of competing; fighting to be the best in a field of their peers… and they can do that in Test whites, in ODI pajamas, or in the pastel pinks and the bling helmets of the IPL.

As sports fans, we often entertain fantasies that athletes are just like us – big old geeks who live and die through the box scores, who collect all the stats and memorise all the trivia, who invest large swathes of emotional capital on their favourite team's historic performances. We believe our heroes hurt as much as we do, and do it all for the love of the game.

The truth is a lot less romantic. Most of these guys we lionise are just plain old jocks – large über-athletic oddities, often marred with deep competitive issues, who just happened to stumble upon cricket serendipitously at some point in their youth, and, well... it stuck.

Maybe the small country town they grew up in had some nets instead of rugby posts and they could while away long summer afternoons in there; maybe they had a secret crush on the school’s cricket coach during puberty, so they signed up for the squad; maybe (and most likely) they were pushed into it by their fathers. Who knows? Some players may indeed treat the game with awe and reverence… but I bet a lot of them simply see it as a job.

(Besides, we can all denounce players like Pietersen for their selfishness and their greed, but who among us could truly resist those opportunities if they were offered to us? I bet you most of the cricket writers and commentators who criticised Pietersen would probably jump like ravenous dogs at the chance of earning a few thousand more dollars in a year, let alone millions in a month. It’s the natural human reaction… we try not to base our decision on greed, but who out there can say with confidence that they would resist?)

I really don’t think most players out there realise how much leverage they have at this point in time. (For that, we can blame the perennially ineffective Players’ Union. When was the last time you heard anything from them? Exactly.) If they showed some organisation and initiative, they could be holding administrators by the balls right now, demanding a complete remodeling of the system,  with a fairer revenue structure, a substantial cut of the workload, a scrapping of the ridiculous Future Tours Program, etc.

The players have the chance to change all that now, but you can bet that at the hand of such ruthless, cutthroat characters as Lalit Modi, that chance won’t be there for too much longer.

Welcome to the Cricket Meritocracy

Let’s face it, cricket is not a fair game. Being a good player does not guarantee you success. (It doesn’t even guarantee you a chance to compete for success.) No matter how hard they practice, how well they get coached, how selfless they may be on the field, Mashrafe Mortaza and Tatenda Taibu will never see international success. They just won't.

(And let's not even mention Steve Tikolo... he can't even get a game!)

These players will never win a World Cup. Or any major tournament, really. They might sneak in a cheeky series victory against the West Indies or New Zealand in a 2-Test home series sometime in 2013. And it will feel good at the time, but not for too long. Soon enough, they’ll fail again. They will see failure after failure after failure in their professional careers, and there’s nothing they can do to change that.

The sad thing is, we as fans have come to accept that.

Salagiglicamillus The reason why that’s the case is hard to pin down, but I think it has to do with the fact that we treat cricket not so much as a sport but as an exhibition. As we are often told, cricket is defined by the “contest between bat and ball”. You hear that all the time, “contest between bat and ball.” Bat and ball, bat and ball – notice how there are no “players” mentioned in this formulation? That’s because players (not to mention teams, umpires, and results) are dispensable factors in the formula, and will always be so… since the real contest is “between bat and ball.”

This, of course, can make cricket a richer, deeper spectacle for the discerning fan, since even in defeat one can bask in protracted displays of athletic brilliance. As a fan of Sri Lankan cricket, seeing Kumar Sangakkara’s luminous 192 in Hobart last year was probably worth about five series victories, if not more.

Having a competitive league, however, changes all that. No longer are players consigned to competitive mediocrity because of accidents of birth. Now players can actually leave failing squads. They can be traded. They can put themselves out in the market and let their skills define their value on the field.

 This cuts both ways it provides opportunities for players from smaller nations, but it can also bring into play overlooked first-class wonders from bigger countries. No longer would world-class players like the Hussey brothers and Stuart McGill be destined to wait till their mid-30s for a game... and no longer would the likes of Marlon Samuels and Imran Nazir be guaranteed lucrative careers just because their country's talent cupboards are completely bare.

Cricket can finally become something close to a meritocracy, and anyone who cares about Sport -- with a capital "s", the Platonic idea of Sport as one of the only sources of objective justice left in the world -- should welcome that.


Test Cricket Won't Die, But It's Been Moribund For A While Now

One thing the IPL skeptics and the haters of all kinds seem to be assuming is that if nothing had changed in the last few years -- if Twenty20 had never been invented, and that evil Lalit Modi had never hidden his rap sheet and burst through the scene like Tony Montana-- everything could just keep rolling along. Happily and in harmony. Like it had done for centuries.

ScarfaceThat is an illusion. Things weren't nice and rosey. Regardless of the IPL's existence, the equilibrium was already perilously close to unstable and would’ve probably collapsed at some point.

Test cricket has been losing support steadily. The collapse of the West Indies as a world power through the 90s and 00s, Australia’s brutal dominance during that same period, the extended dearth of truly match-winning strike bowlers, and a wider entertainment palette on offer have all made it harder for Test cricket to compete in the modern world.

As far as I can tell, the only country to still have Test cricket on free-to-air TV is Australia, and that could change now that the Warne generation is clearly on its way out. For years now, most Test series around the world have essentially been subsidised by a brutal regimen of one-day internationals imposed on the Indian national team.

There's no way that balance could have remained unchanged. Something had to give.

                                                                * * *

I know, it’s easy to romanticise the Test game. Hell, I do so all the time. (If I had to chose an ideal cricket moment, I'd probably go with something like Shiv Chanderpaul batting on a treacherous 5th day pitch, trying to save a Test against Muralitharan and seven chirping Sri Lankans around the bat, replayed on a grainy feed in some hotel room 8 time zones away, as I lay at night half-lucid, still buzzing from a long flight and a couple of those tiny bottles of ludicrously expensive liquor from the mini-bar. But I'm weird like that.)

Those of us who actually care about Test cricket, however, should start looking at it with an unforgiving eye, and seeing it for what it really is, not what we wish it to be. This in turn will involves accepting many of its inherent flaws, instead of pretending every thing that happens in white uniforms is just peaches and cream on a sunny day.

Yes, Test cricket is capable of producing passages of unmatchable drama and beauty, but the truth is that those are few and far between. (That's partly what makes them so special.) Most matches, to be honest, are predictable, one-sided affairs whose outcome is virtually sealed at the toss. 

Not only that, but even if high-quality passages happen to be played, there's a good chance they'll go to waste in the wrong series. If they occur in some contrived two-match series devoid of any meaningful context, they'll likely be ignored or overlooked.

So, for example, even though New Zealand and Sri Lanka always seem to produce some of the most thrilling, competitive, evenly-matched confrontations, no one really cares about them. Why? Because there's no history between the two teams, because their partisan fanbases are tiny, their international lobbying powers are limited, etc.

(And besides, everyone wants to see the Lakers vs. the Celtics, right? Regardless of the sport.)

MyersaleBut beyond all that, the truth is that Test cricket is really a game of another era. (And those who lament its fall are often decrying the changes societiy has gone through since that era, more than the sport itself.) The very idea of spending 7 hours a day for five consecutive days passively consuming displays of semi-aerobic activity performed by other people just doesn’t ring true with most people’s realities. Who can afford to do this? Must of us have jobs, and long commutes, and errands to run. Let’s not mince words here… cricket watching is really for 'men of leisure.' A true vestige of a dying aristocracy.

However, it can still work in certain packaging. In Australia, for example, the Boxing Day Test at the MCG has now become an annual cultural tradition, one that, along with the chaotic department store sales, have come to embody the holiday period in the Australian psyche. For most Australians, there is no Santa Claus… only Myer and Richie Benaud.

In England, the traditions are even older, and the population is larger, so Test cricket can probably subsist on nostalgia alone for a while longer. It's just hard to say how many new fans the Test game is bringing in over there. Are crowds at Lord's older and on the way out, or are they mixed? Are new, younger generations of fans coming in to replace the old MCC codgers? I certainly hope so.

So what is there to do, in order to make sure Test cricket not only survives, but thrives in the future? That's a question no one can answer with confidence, myself included. (Part of having a background in philosophy involves the tendency to overthink things and never reach proper conclusions. That's when listening to guys like Ranjit Fernando state the bleeding obvious can help.) When I can think of something, though, I'll let you know.

But other voices are already starting to chime in with ideas. I can't say I agree with all of Rob Steen's solutions, but this kind of ambitious, innovative approach is what we need hear about more often. As George Dubya would say, "Bring it on!"

June 09, 2008

Just Another Little Nug

Now that we're clearly in "Let's Shit on Lalit Modi" Week, here's something else we can add to the pile... he was caught smoking in a public place at one of the IPL games in Mohali. Oh won't someone please think of the children?!

June 08, 2008

Lalit Modi Is Not The Devil (There's A Criminal Record To Show It)

                                         The_wire_stringer_bell

 

J Rod asks why we've failed to mention some of the "extra-curricular" activities of IPL chief Lalit Modi so far. (As it turns out, while a student at Duke University, Modi was convicted of drug possession, assault, and kidnapping, and came away with a suspended 2-year sentence. This first became a story in India during the BCCI elections in 2005.)

It might be a sign of a compromised moral sense, or just simple pragmatics, but I believe the thing that bothers me the most about the story is the simple fact that Modi was actually caught. That's not someone I'd want heading a burgeoning cricket empire. I'd prefer someone competent.

As someone whose cousin is in a Spanish prison as we speak, awaiting trial for drug trafficking -- and as someone who remembers playing with said cousin as a little kid and noticing, even back then, what a bumbling, low-wattage dolt the poor guy was -- I can tell you with some confidence: crime ain't for everyone. And good criminals are good because you've never heard of them. They don't fuck up, and they cover their tracks.

Point is: I'm not surprised that a blustering billionaire narcissist who's reached the highest levels of power in his country has done some shady things in the past. I'm surprised that anyone knows about it.

They say the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.

Lalit Modi most definitely exists.

June 04, 2008

Ignorance Is Your Friend (IPL Wrap-Up, p. 1)

From the very start of the IPL, we at Outside the Line decided that the objective of covering the league's first season would be simply to learn. This was a massive venture, of truly unheralded proportions in cricket circles, and we'd try to resist the temptation to reach premature conclusions and make grandiose statements, and just concentrate on observation. There would be plenty of time to collate our notes and announce our findings later.

Well, that time is now. The verdicts are starting to come in from all angles.  Some hit the mark, some miss it somewhat, but they all have a little something to add to the debate. The most important thing now, however, is not to overreach and to start draw conclusions where the evidence is tenuous. The future of every form of cricket for decades to come will probably depend on what happens to the IPL in the next year or so, which means we should tread slowly and gently.

So as Part One of Outside the Line's IPL wrap-up, here are a handful of everyday questions that are still unclear or undecided in our minds, and that no amount of half-lucid, mid-morning cursory observations from a single season of play will be able to resolve. Part Two, still to come, will involve the grander questions about the league and future of the sport in general. But first:


Things We Have NOT Learned From The First Season Of The IPL


What is a par score?

Intuitively, the first response would be to say something like 170. Early on in the tournament, it seemed like it would be a little higher-- later on, as pitches deteriorated somewhat, it was a little lower. But the very idea of a “par score” is itself coloured by what we already know about one-day cricket. In the 50-over game, a par score these days would be around 260 or so. Is 170 supposed to be the exact equivalent of that in Twenty20? Is it supposed to be an average score? Or is it rather the score you must obtain batting first in order for the odds to be even going into the chase?

800pxtiger_chasing_a_deer_3The teams batting second in the tournament ended up winning 60% of the games. That tells us either (a) teams don’t know how to set a total yet, (b) it’s a lot easier to chase totals in Twenty20, no matter what the opposition sets for you, or (c) a little bit of both a) and b).

At the moment, I would lean towards (c). Eventually, though, we can expect teams to learn how to bat first, and how to maximise the efficiency of their hitting (they are way too conservative at the moment -- they’re using deadweight at the top of the order when they don’t need to, they’re conserving wickets too intensely, they’re treating a normal, acceptable trickle of wickets as a ‘collapse’, etc.). By the time that happens, even if the gap closes, will (b) still hold true?

It may be well do so. Knowing the amount you need to chase is generally a very handy mental tool to help guide your innings, especially when the format is shorter and gives you less overs to deal with, thereby minimising the potential for getting dismissed taking risks. Even after teams learn about the format and learn how to assess the wicket and bat accordingly (let’s not forget, most players have only played a couple dozen Twenty20 games in their life -- it’s still as new and novel for them as it is for us), it could be that the natural advantage of chasing still holds, albeit weakly.

What should a bowling unit comprise?

Given the restrictions afforded by the salary cap, the 4-foreigner rule, the catchment rule, etc., what’s the ideal arrangement of bowlers for an IPL squad? It’s become obvious that, since quality bowlers are rarer in this format probably in any other, at least one strike bowling spot per team should be filled with a quality foreign import. But beyond that, what else can we tell?

The most successful teams early on were those with foreign spearheads… Delhi had Glenn McGrath, Pablo Escobar Mohammad Asif, and Farveez Maharoof, and they often went in with all three in their attack at the same time. (And that's not even counting Daniel Vettori, who was available for only a handful of games.)

Rajasthan had the two Aussie Shanes leading the bowling (of course, one of those Shanes was incredibly more influential on the team’s fortunes than the other, MVP trophy notwithstanding), and they later added another foreign strike bowler, Sohail Tanvir, who by now we must all admit is a complete freak of nature and utterly beyond rational description.

B_f_skinner_3 On the other hand, the Kings XI Punjab had what most people would consider to be the ultimate spearhead (Brett Lee) for their first few games. They did okay while he was around, winning two and losing two, but right after he left, they went on a royal rampage, winning 8 out of 10 games going into the semifinal. Those victories were all achieved with a bowling attack full of Indians, with two current internationals (Sreesanth and Irfan Pathan) and one destined to be a mainstay in the Indian team for the next couple of decades (Piyush Chawla). So maybe you don’t need foreign internationals, just internationals of any sort.

Well, not quite. The Chennai Super Kings were runners-up in the end, and their two leading wicket-takers were an uncapped player – Manpreet Gony – and a barely-capped one – Albie Morkel – with 17 wickets apiece. Their two bowling imports (Muttiah Muralitharan and Makhaya Ntini) were a lot less numerically productive (11 and 7 wickets, respectively), but at least they kept their economy rate low, which is probably what kept Chennai alive in so many tight contests. It could be that the pressure they created caused opposing teams to consciously target other – more inexperienced – bowlers in the squad, hence producing more chances for wickets.

As is clear, the evidence here is mixed, and as they teach you in undergraduate psychology, the trick to any sort of analysis is simply to say:

There is evidence for hypothesis A.
There is also evidence for hypothesis not-A.
More research is needed.

(Apply that formula liberally, and you’re well on your way to becoming the next B.F. Skinner, believe me. My buddy Lefty J, for one, got an entire bachelor’s degree in psych without once having to reach a meaningful conclusion in 3-and-a-half years of study. Quite impressive, if you ask me.)


Does home-ground advantage exist in the IPL?

Simply looking at the numbers, the answer seems like a pretty resounding “NO”. Out of 55 games in the league that ended in a result, the home team won 29 times (or 53% of the time) while the visitors won 26. A very slight advantage to the home team there, but a statistically insignificant one.

S_monopolyhouse_2 The question, however, is whether this represents a trend within the IPL, the Twenty20 format as a whole, or whether it’s just too early to tell. I’ve done a quick search for stats on home-ground advantage for other Twenty20 competitions, but there isn’t much data available. All I could gather, from a betting site, was that in the first year of the English T20 domestic competition there was a marked advantage to the home teams in the group stages, but eventually those numbers evened out.

When you think about it, though, why shouldn’t playing at home be an advantage? It is in just about every other team sport – to varying degrees of course – and it’s hard to imagine an atmosphere like the one produced at, say, Eden Gardens not having an effect on the course of play. What exactly that effect would be comprised of is a matter of contention. Many scholarly studies regarding the home advantage phenomenon have been conducted, with varying results. One metastudy (via Matt Yglesias) states:

A number of studies provide strong evidence that home advantage increases with crowd size, until the crowd reaches a certain size or consistency (a more balanced number of home and away supporters), after which a peak in home advantage is observed. Two possible mechanisms were proposed to explain these observations: either (i) the crowd is able to raise the performance of the home competitors relative to the away competitors; or (ii) the crowd is able to influence the officials to subconsciously favour the home team. The literature supports the latter to be the most important and dominant explanation.

That latter explanation would definitely make a lot of sense as far as cricket is concerned, where the fate of batsmen is so often decided on tiny instinctive factors within an umpire’s interpretation. Yet again, as the psych major would say, more research is needed.


Who do we blame for a team’s losses?

Much ink has already been spilled over Vijay Mallya’s sacking as CEO of Bangalore, but the question his failed reign poses will continue to linger in the air… who is in charge of these teams? Who do we hail praise at, and who do we hold accountable? Up until now, professional cricket has had a very wide division of power. The captain controls things on the field, the coach helps him off the field, the selectors get to pick the teams, the board gets to pick the selectors, etc.

As Montesquieu has taught us, divided rule is great for controlling abuses of power, but it also stalls progress, promotes the status quo, and makes accountability harder to define. Given that there’s very little chance of the Kolkata Knight Riders devolving into a tyranny and deciding to invade Bangladesh, maybe abuse of power shouldn’t be our biggest concern. Lack of accountability at top, however, should, and something tells me that the huge amounts of money invested in this little shindig will force the issue to be addressed soon enough.

(Whether this leads to the game of Coach Musical Chairs that we often see in European soccer and NBA basketball is hard to say, but it’s about time cricket was forced to confront one of its more puzzling anachronisms.)


Just how good was Brendon McCullum’s 158*?

This is not necessarily something which we haven’t learned so far, but something which some of us maybe haven’t realised yet. After we all saw that innings in the first game of the tournament, we must’ve assumed we would see those kind of breathtaking knocks all the time. (Or perhaps even greater ones… a double-century, perhaps? Yeah, why not? Gilly can do it, right?)

Now that we’re through – and it’s become quite clear that those kinds of knocks will always be more outlier than norm – it might be time to assess McCullum’s effort again. And as we do so, even if we don’t want it to, it might also lead us to seriously ask ourselves: it is possible that was one of the greatest cricket innings we will ever see?

I70grandchampion1_2 First, we can look at the numbers. 158 unbeaten runs off 73 deliveries. 10 fours and 13 sixes. Strike rate of 216. (That is almost 2.2 runs per ball. Do you know what that means? If you score one single -- just one -- you pretty much have to score a boundary on the next ball just to catch up on the run rate. Another single, and not even a four is enough.)

Since that first game, no one has scored anything even close to 158. In the 58 games since that inaugural fixture, there were only five other centuries (four of those by Australians), with the highest score being Andrew Symonds’s 117*.

Then, there are those 13 sixes. Since that initial date, only two other players (Jayasuriya and Gilchrist) reached double-figures in a innings, and overall, only five other IPL innings included so much as half that amount of sixes as McCullum’s. Hell, in the entire history of ODIs, no one has hit 13 sixes.

But beyond the stats, there is the subjective appreciation. McCullum's was an intense assault, yet it wasn't mindless or brutish (in other words, it wasn't "Afridiesque"). His footwork was sprightly, his approach was exuberant, and his shot selection was innovative. He played regular shots, off the middle of the bat, adorned with a wristy flourish. He targeted the weak and punished the wayward.   

And then, there is that ultimate intangible -- the sense of The Occasion. True winners have a way of separating themselves from the pack by lifting their game when it matters. (Or at least, when the public perception is that “it matters”.) They excel in knockout matches, in grand finals, in derbies -- when everybody is watching, when everybody’s talking, when everybody will remember. This was the inaugural innings in the league that changed the world. The stage could not get any bigger, or the crowd any more anticipatory. This was the time for the champions – for the Jordans, and Federers, and Warnes of this world – to rise to The Occasion and fulfill the destiny of the narratives we create for them.

Brendon McCullum rose. And how.

Someday, we all might realise it.

June 03, 2008

No Time For Titles, Go Read

Courtesy of Dileep Premachandran, here is by far the most even-headed account and commentary on the IPL so far.

Read it. Absorb it. And come back for Outside the Line's verdict on the league later in the week.

June 02, 2008

Final Plaudits & Gripes (IPL Final: Rajasthan v. Chennai)

Okay, IPL... we're even. I doubted you, I questioned your merits at the crucial parts of the event, I abandoned you a little for a couple of weeks, but yet again, you made things up in the end with a truly gripping final. Thanks. We're cool.

For anyone who wants to know about the action in the final, no need to go any further than the poor man's cricinfo (aka Miriam), and her coverage on Cricket w/ Balls. (Or you could just be all corporate about it, and go to the real cricinfo's coverage.) I don't have much to add regarding the final itself, and we'll be posting different IPL-recap pieces throughout the week, but just a couple of notes:

  • Yet again, Makhaya Ntini proves to everyone that he just might be the most underrated and undervalued cricketer going around. He never gets injured, he never complains, he always tries hard, and always comes back with boundless energy and a smile. He sees himself getting taken in and out of the team throughout the season, given no rhythm or sign of confidence from above... and then, just like that, he goes out and wins his team the semifinal with two wickets (one of those Shaun Marsh, only the best batter in the league) and just about put them in the position to repeat the performance in the final, with a tight spell and a brilliant run-out. And still, few people seem to notice.

    (Whether he's the most underrated player is, I guess, a matter of debate, but I bet he'd at least head the bowling attack in the Undervalued XI. He'd be right there with Nathan Bracken, Matthew Hoggard, and Anil Kumble.)
  • Suprisingly enough, the level of commentating got a little bit better towards the end of the tournament, after the very quiet dumping of that tragic triumvirate of broadcasting incompetence -- Greg Chappell, Aamer Sohail and Ranjit Fernando -- somewhere around the 4-week mark of the season. Damien Fleming may sound like his entire nasal passage is plugged with semen, but he actually tries new things, and he learns as he goes along, and gets excited by the game... that's more than we can say for half of the shattered souls in that commentating booth.
  • For example, it was good to see the commentators actually mention how slow the over rates were getting towards the end of the tournament, and to what ridiculous length Warne was taking it in the final.  One of the big drawcards to the Twenty20 format is supposed to be its (relative) brevity... no longer would we need to give seven hours of our day to find out who wins a damn cricket match.

    Yet most IPL games are still going on for about three-and-a-half hours, and the final went as far went on for more than four, finishing up after 6:30 in the morning in New Zealand. I know the concerns of the live viewership in New Zealand are probably as far from the Indian IPL moguls minds' as the coordinates of the Sandwich Islands, but would it really hurt them to speed things up a little? Who wants to see the sunrise after a cricket match?


June 01, 2008

More Plaudits & Gripes (Re: Second IPL Semifinal, Punjab v. Chennai)